JTWC 北西太平洋で低圧部を解析
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2022年9月24日01時30分（UTC）、日本時間2022年09月24日（土） 10時30分時点で、今後、熱帯低気圧に発達する可能性のある「低圧部96W」を解析、発表しました。
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9月24日22時30分（UTC）熱帯低気圧発生警告「WTPN21」発行
9月24日23時00分（UTC）、9月25日08時00分（JST）の定時発表で、レベル「HIGH」
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9月24日18時00分（UTC）、9月25日03時00分（JST）の定時発表でレベル「MEDIUM」
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9月24日01時30分（UTC）、9月24日10時30分（JST）の定時発表でレベル「LOW」
Tropical Cyclone Formation
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21｜Issued at 24/2230Z
TCFA Text
WTPN21 PGTW 242230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 146.5E TO 24.1N 142.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHERN FORMATIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLC. INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS AS INVEST 96W TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252230Z.// NNNN
TCFA Graphic
Google Earth Overlay
9月24日23時00分（UTC）｜9月25日08時00分（JST）
TC development likely within 24 hours（Reference TCFA）
9月24日18時00分（UTC）｜9月25日03時00分（JST）
TC development unlikely. but expected to occur beyond 24 hours
9月24日01時30分（UTC）｜9月24日10時30分（JST）
TC development unlikely within 24 hours
