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JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部を解析 熱帯低気圧発生の可能性|2022年9月27日21時30分(UTC)発行

低圧部 JTWC

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Issued at 27/2130Z|Google Earth Overlay

 

JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部を解析|硫黄島の南西約990km付近

JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)は、2022年9月27日21時30分(UTC)、日本時間2022年09月28日(水)06時30分時点で、今後、熱帯低気圧に発達する可能性のある「低圧部97W」を解析、発表しました。

同時点の推定位置は、硫黄島の南西約990km付近とみられます。

9月27日21時30分(UTC)熱帯低気圧発生警告「WTPN21」発行

9月27日21時30分(UTC)、9月28日06時30分(JST)の定時発表でレベル「HIGH」

9月27日06時00分(UTC)、9月27日15時00分(JST)の定時発表でレベル「MEDIUM」

 

 

Tropical Cyclone Formation

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21|Issued at 27/2130Z

TCFA Text

WTPN21 PGTW 272130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 133.9E TO 24.6N 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 272100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 133.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 536NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 271644Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST AND 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
282130Z.
//
NNNN

 

TCFA Graphic

低圧部 JTWC

 

Google Earth Overlay

低圧部 JTWC

 

9月27日21時30分(UTC)|9月28日06時30分(JST)

TC development likely within 24 hours(Reference TCFA)

低圧部 JTWC

 

9月27日06時00分(UTC)|9月27日15時00分(JST)

TC development unlikely. but expected to occur beyond 24 hours

低圧部 JTWC

 

 

参考:進路予想|International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

9月28日11時08分時点

低圧部 Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

reference:cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley

 

 

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