JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部を解析｜硫黄島の南西約990km付近
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2022年9月27日21時30分（UTC）、日本時間2022年09月28日（水）06時30分時点で、今後、熱帯低気圧に発達する可能性のある「低圧部97W」を解析、発表しました。
同時点の推定位置は、硫黄島の南西約990km付近とみられます。
—
9月27日21時30分（UTC）熱帯低気圧発生警告「WTPN21」発行
9月27日21時30分（UTC）、9月28日06時30分（JST）の定時発表でレベル「HIGH」
—
9月27日06時00分（UTC）、9月27日15時00分（JST）の定時発表でレベル「MEDIUM」
Tropical Cyclone Formation
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21｜Issued at 27/2130Z
TCFA Text
WTPN21 PGTW 272130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 133.9E TO 24.6N 131.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 272100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 536NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271644Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 282130Z. // NNNN
TCFA Graphic
Google Earth Overlay
9月27日21時30分（UTC）｜9月28日06時30分（JST）
TC development likely within 24 hours（Reference TCFA）
9月27日06時00分（UTC）｜9月27日15時00分（JST）
TC development unlikely. but expected to occur beyond 24 hours
参考：進路予想｜International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
9月28日11時08分時点
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley
