JTWC パラオ北東で低圧部90Wを解析｜令和5年台風1号となる可能性
90W レベル「MEDIUM」
JTWCは、位置9.2N 136.4Eに、低圧部を解析（情報発行時点）。今後、TD：熱帯低気圧となる可能性。
この熱帯低気圧が基準値まで発達した場合、令和5年台風1号発生の可能性（一部気象会社気象予報士等可能性予測）。
→ 2023年4月13日21時30分UTC時点までに、90Wは消失
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.2N 138.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM WEST OF
YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LLC AND FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 090050Z ASCAT-C PASS
REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH A SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE
NORTH. A RECENT YAP SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A FLAT
PRESSURE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SST, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT)
VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
気象庁観測 気圧配置
気象庁発表
2023年04月10日03時の実況
2023年04月11日21時の予想
※2023年04月10日21時の予想までは「L」。2023年04月11日21時の予想で「TD」。
参考：International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
進路予測 2023年4月10日09時35分時点
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley
