JTWC パラオの北東で低圧部90Wを解析｜2023年4月9日18時00分UTC発行

2024年7月19日

JTWC パラオ北東で低圧部90Wを解析｜令和5年台風1号となる可能性

90W レベル「MEDIUM」

JTWCは、位置9.2N 136.4Eに、低圧部を解析（情報発行時点）。今後、TD：熱帯低気圧となる可能性。

この熱帯低気圧が基準値まで発達した場合、令和5年台風1号発生の可能性（一部気象会社気象予報士等可能性予測）。

→ 2023年4月13日21時30分UTC時点までに、90Wは消失

ABPW10 PGTW 090600

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAPR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.2N 138.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM WEST OF 
YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LLC AND FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 090050Z ASCAT-C PASS 
REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH A SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE 
NORTH. A RECENT YAP SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE THE 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A FLAT 
PRESSURE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SST, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) 
VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT 
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN