JTWC カロリン諸島近海に低圧部解析
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2023年7月25日06時00分UTC時点で、カロリン諸島近海の低圧部について情報発行しています。
同時点での低圧部91Wは「LOW」です。※監視対象ではあるものの、今後24時間以内に発達する可能性は低い低圧部
また、気象庁は、同日15時00分の実況天気図で同海域に「L 1008hPa」を解析。48時間後の27日09時00分の予想天気図では「「TD（TROPICAL DEPRESSION）熱帯低気圧 1006hPa」を予想しています。※気象庁天気図は下部参照。
この低圧部（熱帯低気圧）が発達し台風が発生すると、令和5年台風第6号となります。
※低圧部や熱帯低気圧は、発達せずに消滅することがあります。
JTWC 低圧部 91W
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJUL2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZJUL2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 25JUL23 0000Z, SUPER TYPHOON 05W (DOKSURI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.7N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 160
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.9N 143.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY
BROAD FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A
250035Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A WEAK BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A
SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW FROM STY 05W. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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気象庁天気図
気象庁発表天気図
2023年7月25日15時00分実況天気図
2023年7月25日15時00分実況天気図
2023年7月27日09時00分予想天気図
2023年7月27日09時00分予想天気図
