小笠原諸島の南東に熱帯低気圧
気象庁は、2023年8月6日15時の実況天気図で、TD（TROPICAL DEPRESSION：熱帯低気圧）1002hPaを解析しています。同時点で、この熱帯低気圧は、ALMOST STNR（ ALMOST STATIONARY：ほとんど停滞）と表記されています。※ALMOST STNR：ほとんど停滞（速度5ノット以下で進行方向が定まっていない）
また、JTWCは、8月6日06時00分発行のTropical Warningsで、低圧部95Wの情報発行をしています。同時点のJTWC解析は「low 」（chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours）。
8月6日時点での気象庁衛星写真などでは、この熱帯低気圧は、それぞれ発達している積乱雲がまとまっていない状態ですが、同海域周辺の海面水温は29～30℃と高く、風や大気など、条件が揃えば発達を始めるとみられています。
今後、6日からの週の半ばから後半にかけて、この熱帯低気圧が発達し、台風となる可能性が予想されています。
台風が発生した場合、令和5年台風第7号となります。
※低圧部や熱帯低気圧は、発達せずに消滅することがあります。
JTWC Tropical Warnings
JTWC Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories Issued at 06/0600Z
JTWC Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories Issued at 06/0600Z
ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZAUG2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060152ZAUG2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06AUG23 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
27.5N 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 060300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.2N 145.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. A
060028Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND GRADIENT WINDS OF 15-20KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (5-
10 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL DRIFT
POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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気象庁 天気図
2023年08月06日15時の実況天気図 気象庁
2023年08月06日15時の実況天気図 気象庁
2023年08月08日09時の予想天気図 気象庁
2023年08月08日09時の予想天気図 気象庁
