台風

JTWC グアム島アガットの西約135km付近で低圧部97Wを解析|2022年10月10日UTC

熱帯低気圧 JTWC

 

JTWC グアム島アガットの西約135kmで低圧部97Wを解析|Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories

2022年10月11日06時00分(UTC)

JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)は、低圧部W97について、2022年9月11日06時00分、日本時間(JST)同15時00分、「LOW」から「MEDIUM」に上昇させた解析を発行しました。

位置:14.1N 142.4E(グアム島の西北西約260km付近)

低圧部 JTWC

台風の発生と熱帯低気圧|台風関連の用語・基礎知識

 

Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories|Issued at 11/0600Z

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110521ZOCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
--
98W Abbreviated
--
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF. AN 110020Z 
ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS HALF THE STORY OF 97W WITH WIND 
FIELDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE RANGING FROM 20-30KTS (UNDER A CONVECTIVE 
BAND) WITH LESSER FIELDS OF 10-15 KTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH 
LOW (05-10 KTS) VWS, WARM 30C SSTS, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED 
BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER 97W AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH WHICH IS 
INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

 

2022年10月10日06時00分(UTC)

位置:13.3N 143.4E(グアム島 アガットの西約135km)付近

今後24時間以内に重要な熱帯低気圧が発生する可能性は低い

低圧部 JTWC

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 
143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT 
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS 
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET 
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY 
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

※熱帯じょう乱のうち、低気圧性循環(LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION)の中心が不明瞭なものは原則として「低圧部」と解析される。

※CONVECTION:対流・対流圏(troposphere)

 

 

参考:International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

位置

Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

reference:cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley

 

 

  • この記事を書いた人

uPw

-台風