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JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析|2022年10月9日06時00分UTC

低圧部 JTWC

 

JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98wを解析|Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories

JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)は、フィリピン海で低圧部98wを解析、情報発行しました。

 

98W レベル「MEDIUM」に上昇|2022年10月10日06時00分

位置:16.9N 125.9E(フィリピン・マニラの北東約590km)

低圧部 JTWC

ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)|Issued at 10/0600Z

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING 
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY 
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS 
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE 
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

 

ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)|2022年10月9日06時00分(UTC)

位置:15.9N 132.1E(グアムの西約1400km , フィリピン・マニラの約東1200km)付近

今後24時間以内に重要な熱帯低気圧が発生する可能性は低い

低圧部 JTWC

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N 
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 090448Z ATMS 88.2GHZ PASS DEPICT A 
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY DEFINED CENTER, WITH 
PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK DUE TO 
STRONG EASTERLY CONVERGENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

※熱帯じょう乱のうち、低気圧性循環(LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION)の中心が不明瞭なものは原則として「低圧部」と解析される。

※CONVECTION:対流・対流圏(troposphere)

 

 

参考:International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

進路予測|2022年10月11日00時23分

Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

 

位置|2022年10月10日00時23分

Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

reference:cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley

 

 

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