JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析｜2023年6月5日06時30分UTC発行

 

JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析 台風3号発生の可能性

98W レベル「HIGH」

JTWCは、2023年6月5日06時30分UTC、日本時間同日15時30分JST、フィリピン海（10.9N 137.4E）の低圧部98Wが今後24時間以内に熱帯低気圧となる「TC development likely within 24 hours」の情報を発行しました。なお、この情報は、2023年6月6日06時00分UTCまでに、再発行、警報への格上げ、または解除される予定です。

また、気象庁は6月5日時点で、7日09時の予想天気図にTD（熱帯低気圧）発生を解析しています。

W98が熱帯低気圧となり、その後、発達した場合、令和5年台風3号となる可能性があります。

※低圧部・低気圧・熱帯低気圧は、気象条件等によって発達せず、「消滅」する場合があります。

 

JTWC ISUUE TIME：05/0630z

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 05/0600Z｜IR Satellite Imagery

 

JTWC ISSUE TIME：02/0600z

 

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Issued at 05/0600Z TCFA Text

WTPN21 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 134.7E TO 13.7N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 134.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9N 137.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 134.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 050017Z ASCAT-B 
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH 
OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 98W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ARE CONDUCIVE AT A WARM 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060600Z.//

 

 

TCFA Graphic

 

 

気象庁観測 気圧配置

▶ 気象庁天気図

2023年06月05日09時の実況天気図

2023年06月06日09時の予想

2023年06月07日09時の予想

 

参考：International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map

進路予測 2023年6月5日16時30分時点

reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley