JTWC グアム島の南1,000km付近に低圧部｜WTPN22発行
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2023年5月19日02時00分UTC、日本時間同日11時00分JST、太平洋上、パラオとミクロネシアの中央付近にある監視対象低圧部97Wが、今後24時間以内に熱帯低気圧に発達する可能性の「HIGH」に解析、情報を発行しました。
W97が熱帯低気圧となり、その後、発達した場合、令和5年台風2号となる可能性があります。
※低圧部・低気圧・熱帯低気圧は、気象条件等によって発達せず、「消滅」する場合があります。
W98位置 JTWC
Google Earth Overlay
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 147.8E TO 7.4N 147.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TCFA Text｜Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN22 Issued at 19/0200Z
WTPN22 PGTW 190200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951ZMAY2023// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 147.8E TO 7.4N 147.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 147.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 522 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, USA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSMIS 91GHZ 181918Z IMAGE INDICATES THAT A DOMINANT LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND IT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE VORTICITY IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE PRESENT LLCC. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE COMING DAYS. ANY SUBSEQUENT WARNING AND ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC ONCE IT BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 182000). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200200Z. // NNNN
JTWC Tropical Warnings｜2023年5月18日18時00分発行時点
気象庁（JMA）天気図｜2023年5月19日発表時点
2023年05月19日12時の実況
日本のはるか南に、ALMOST STNR（ほとんど停滞）の低圧部「L 1008」
L：低気圧または低圧部を示す
2023年05月20日09時の予想
19日12時実況の低圧部「L 1008」が「TD 1004」に発達
TD：TROPICAL DEPRESSION（台風のたまごと言われることもある熱帯低気圧）
今後の進路
JTWC 進路予想
参考：進路予想｜International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
