JTWC 香港の東に新たな低圧部99W解析
JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)は、2023年6月9日(金曜日)06時00分UTC、日本時間同15時00分、香港とベトナム・ハノイの中間付近で、新たな低圧部99Wを解析、情報発行しました。
同時点での低圧部のレベルは「LOW」です。
![JTWC 香港の東に新たな低圧部99W解析 インド洋にサイクロン|2023年6月9日06時00分UTC発行 2 JTWC 低圧部 サイクロン](https://weathernews.unavailable.jp/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/jtwc-20230609-1000z.jpg)
JTWC 衛星図 2023年6月9日10時00分UTC発行
ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)|Issued at 09/0600Z
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZJUN2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZJUN2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 09JUN23 0000Z, TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
130.4E, APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.9N 108.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHWEST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI), ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 082337Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. A 090213Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 10-15 KT WINDS OVER WATER TO
THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AND SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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気象庁 6月9日21時の実況天気図で99Wの位置に熱帯低気圧を解析
気象庁 発表
2023年06月09日21時の実況
赤い上矢印「⇧」がW99。気象庁天気図では「TD」。▶ 気象庁の発表する予想天気図の見方|予想天気図の説明
矢印の右下の同心円は、「令和5年台風3号グチョル」。
![JTWC 香港の東に新たな低圧部99W解析 インド洋にサイクロン|2023年6月9日06時00分UTC発行 3 熱帯低気圧 気象庁 天気図](https://weathernews.unavailable.jp/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/jma-map-20230609-2100n.jpg)
2023年06月09日21時の実況天気図 気象庁
インド洋にサイクロン Biparjoy と 熱帯低気圧03B
Tropical Cyclone 02A|Biparjoy
Issued at 09/1500Z Warning Graphic
Issued at 09/1500Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDIO31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (BIPARJOY)
WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.5N 67.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 558 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADILY
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A CLUSTER OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). EIR ALSO SHOWS A SECOND
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATED FROM THE CORE CONVECTION AND
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 091146Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION SHEARED
WESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
DISCONNECTED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DATA-T ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND AN AIDT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT 65 KNOTS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST OVER WESTERN INDIA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 – 65 KTS
KNES: T4.0 – 65 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 – 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 090855Z
CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 091200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS STRUGGLING TO
CONSOLIDATE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VWS.
MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN THE INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED, UNIMPRESSIVE
CORE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON THE
DECREASING VWS SCENARIO AND NOW INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HIGH VWS, THEREFORE, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80
KNOTS AT TAU 36 AND WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED FURTHER. TC 02A IS
MEANDERING POLEWARD SLOWLY AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 36, VWS IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES STRENGTHENING
SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA.
MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NAVGEM, IN PARTICULAR, ALIGNED CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A 170NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 AND A LARGE
385NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120 REFLECTING
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY (LOW CONFIDENCE) IN THE EXTENDED JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE 090600Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO BETTER
ALIGNED BUT ALSO REFLECT INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE 090600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FROM 80 TO 90
PERCENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 – 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 – 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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Tropical Cyclone 03B (Three)
Issued at 09/1500Z Warning Graphic
Issued at 09/1500Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDIO32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.9N 91.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 144 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 091004Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING WESTWARD WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND THE SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RECENT 090355Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW HOWEVER THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS IS SUPPORTIVE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH FLOW ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS DEMS: T1.0 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 091130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BUT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MYANMAR COAST WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED WITH HWRF, ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK INTO MYANMAR. THE 090000Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) SHOWS THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO MYANMAR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE 081800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) IS MORE LIMITED WITH A SPARSE SET OF SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE WEAK SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DUE TO THE LACK OF GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN