最終更新日 2024年7月19日 20:28 The Unavailable Japan Weather Staff
JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98ｗを解析｜Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、フィリピン海で低圧部98ｗを解析、情報発行しました。
98W レベル「MEDIUM」に上昇｜2022年10月10日06時00分
位置：16.9N 125.9E（フィリピン・マニラの北東約590km）
ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)｜Issued at 10/0600Z
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)｜2022年10月9日06時00分（UTC）
位置：15.9N 132.1E（グアムの西約1400km , フィリピン・マニラの約東1200km）付近
今後24時間以内に重要な熱帯低気圧が発生する可能性は低い
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9N
132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 090448Z ATMS 88.2GHZ PASS DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY DEFINED CENTER, WITH
PERSISTENT INTENSE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK DUE TO
STRONG EASTERLY CONVERGENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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※熱帯じょう乱のうち、低気圧性循環（LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION）の中心が不明瞭なものは原則として「低圧部」と解析される。
※CONVECTION：対流・対流圏（troposphere）
参考：International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
進路予測｜2022年10月11日00時23分
位置｜2022年10月10日00時23分
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley