JTWC フィリピン海の低圧部98WをHIGHに解析｜WTPN21発行
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2022年10月11日05時30分（UTC）、日本時間（JST）同日14時30分、フィリピン海で監視中だった低圧部W98を「HIGH」に解析、WTPN21を発行しました。
位置：16.0N 124.7E（フィリピン・マニラの東北東約425km付近）
モデルガイダンスによると、ルソンの東に位置し、西に向かってゆっくり移動。
98Wは、今後24時間以内に熱帯低気圧となる可能性があります。
※この発行情報の事前のJTWC発表
JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析｜2022年10月9日06時00分UTC
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21｜Issued at 11/0530Z
TCFA Text
WTPN21 PGTW 110530 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 245 NM RADIUS OF 16.0N 124.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-ROUNDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TUCKED BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FOUR HOURS. A 110112Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWED 30-35KT NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A NE SURGE EVENT, SURGING DOWN FROM THE LUZON STRAIGHT, AND 20-25KTS WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LUZON BEGINNING TO WRAP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY WARM SSTS (30-31C). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT TAU 36, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120530Z. // NNNN
TCFA Graphic
参考：進路予想｜International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley
