JTWC 南シナ海から北マリアナ諸島にかけて4つの低圧部を解析｜Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories
2022年10月12日04時00分（UTC）
JTWC（Joint Typhoon Warning Center）は、2022年10月12日04時00分（UTC）、日本時間（JST）同日13時00分、北太平洋で、低圧部99Wを解析、情報発行しました。
レベル：MEDIUM
位置：16.0N 151.3E（グアム島の東北東約760km付近）
この解析発行により、同時点で、南シナ海から北マリアナ諸島にかけて、4つの低圧部が存在しています。
90W：LOW → 台風19号に発達
97W：MEDIUM → 10月14日06時00分（UTC）時点で「HIGH」に上昇
99W：MEDIUM → 熱帯低気圧21Wに発達
98W：HIGH → 消滅
98W , 97Wの経過は下部「これまでの経過」参照。
Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories｜Reissued at 12/0400Z
ABPW10 PGTW 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120400Z-120600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED
BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW
ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT
TAU 24, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF
VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU
36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111220Z ASCAT
METOP-C PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLC IS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR N E, APPROXIMATELY NM NORTH OF
. AN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. AN 111309Z ASCAT
METOP-B BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS 90W BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A
STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT TO KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST OF SAIPAN, NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120230Z
HIMAWARI-8 INFARED IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, A 112358Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFIND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS),
FAIR EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(4).//
NNNN
2022年10月11日20時00分（UTC）90W
JTWCは、2022年10月11日20時00分（UTC）、日本時間（JST）同12日05時00分、南シナ海で、低圧部90Wを解析、情報発行しました。
レベル：LOW
位置：13.5N 118.6E（フィリピン・マニラの西南西約280km付近）
参考：進路予想｜International Hurricane / Cyclone / Typhoon Tracking forecast Map
10月13日01時00分（JST）時点
reference：cyclocane is a CYCLOne and hurriCANE tracker by hayley
これまでの経過
JTWC フィリピン海の低圧部98WをHIGHに解析 24時間以内に熱帯低気圧発生の可能性｜2022年10月11日05時30分UTC発行
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https://unavailable.jp/wtpn21-11th-oct-2022-utc-jtwc/
unavailable.jp
JTWC グアム島 アガットの西約135km付近で低圧部97Wを解析｜2022年10月10日UTC
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https://unavailable.jp/jtwc-97w-10-oct-2022-utc/
JTWC フィリピン海で低圧部98Wを解析｜2022年10月9日06時00分UTC
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https://unavailable.jp/jtwc-98w-09-oct-2022-utc/
